Long Island Preparedness

Strongest solar storm since 2005 hitting Earth

January 24th, 2012

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The sun is bombarding Earth with radiation from the biggest solar storm in more than six years with more to come from the fast-moving eruption.

The solar flare occurred at about 11 p.m. EST Sunday and will hit Earth with three different effects at three different times. The biggest issue is radiation, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center in Colorado.

The radiation is mostly a concern for satellite disruptions and astronauts in space. It can cause communication problems for polar-traveling airplanes, said space weather center physicist Doug Biesecker.

Radiation from Sunday’s flare arrived at Earth an hour later and will likely continue through Wednesday. Levels are considered strong but other storms have been more severe. There are two higher levels of radiation on NOAA’s storm scale — severe and extreme — Biesecker said. Still, this storm is the strongest for radiation since May 2005.

The radiation — in the form of protons — came flying out of the sun at 93 million miles per hour.

“The whole volume of space between here and Jupiter is just filled with protons and you just don’t get rid of them like that,” Biesecker said. That’s why the effects will stick around for a couple days.

NASA’s flight surgeons and solar experts examined the solar flare’s expected effects and decided that the six astronauts on the International Space Station do not have to do anything to protect themselves from the radiation, spokesman Rob Navias said.

A solar eruption is followed by a one-two-three punch, said Antti Pulkkinen, a physicist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland and Catholic University.

First comes electromagnetic radiation, followed by radiation in the form of protons.

Then, finally the coronal mass ejection — that’s the plasma from the sun itself — hits. Usually that travels at about 1 or 2 million miles per hour, but this storm is particularly speedy and is shooting out at 4 million miles per hour, Biesecker said.

It’s the plasma that causes much of the noticeable problems on Earth, such as electrical grid outages. In 1989, a solar storm caused a massive blackout in Quebec. It can also pull the northern lights further south.

But this coronal mass ejection seems likely to be only moderate, with a chance for becoming strong, Biesecker said. The worst of the storm is likely to go north of Earth.

And unlike last October, when a freak solar storm caused auroras to be seen as far south as Alabama, the northern lights aren’t likely to dip too far south this time, Biesecker said. Parts of New England, upstate New York, northern Michigan, Montana and the Pacific Northwest could see an aurora but not until Tuesday evening, he said.

For the past several years the sun had been quiet, almost too quiet. Part of that was the normal calm part of the sun’s 11-year cycle of activity. Last year, scientists started to speculate that the sun was going into an unusually quiet cycle that seems to happen maybe once a century or so.

Now that super-quiet cycle doesn’t seem as likely, Biesecker said.

Scientists watching the sun with a new NASA satellite launched in 2010 — during the sun’s quiet period — are excited.

“We haven’t had anything like this for a number of years,” Pulkkinen said. “It’s kind of special.”

http://news.yahoo.com/strongest-solar-storm-since-2005-hitting-earth-163628746.html

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Global Economy Could Endure Disaster For a Week

January 7th, 2012

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The global economy could withstand widespread disruption from a natural disaster or attack by militants for only a week as governments and businesses are not sufficiently prepared to deal with unexpected events, a report by a respected think-tank said.

Events such as the 2010 volcanic ash cloud, which grounded flights in Europe, Japan’s earthquake and tsunami and Thailand’s floods last year, have showed that key sectors and businesses can be severely affected if disruption to production or transport goes on for more than a week.

“One week seems to be the maximum tolerance of the ‘just-in-time’ global economy,” said the report by Chatham House, the London-based policy institute for international affairs.

The current fragile state of the world’s economy leaves it particularly vulnerable to unforeseen shocks. Up to 30 percent of developed countries’ gross domestic product could be directly threatened by crises, especially in the manufacturing and tourism sectors, according to the think-tank.

It is estimated that the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Asia cost businesses $60 billion, or about 2 percent of east Asian GDP, the report said.

After the Japanese tsunami and nuclear crisis in March last year, global industrial production declined by 1.1 percent the following month, according to the World Bank.

The 2010 volcanic ash cloud cost the European Union 5-10 billion euros and pushed some airlines and travel companies to the verge of bankruptcy.

“I would like to think we can learn from those experiences and be more resilient for longer but it won’t happen unless governments and businesses are better prepared and put in place different supply chains which can be relied on when disasters strike,” said Alyson Warhurst, chief executive of UK-based risk analysis company Maplecroft.

‘Be Prepared’

Costs can escalate quickly when transport or major production hubs are disrupted for more than a few days, which can in turn threaten food and water supplies and energy and communication networks, the report said.

In the event of prolonged disruption, some businesses would be forced to cut investment and jobs or consider closing down, leading to a permanent reduction in countries’ growth.

In general, governments and businesses are under-prepared to respond to high-impact, unpredictable events, with worst-case scenarios rarely factored into their contingency plans.

“Contingency and business planning often assumes the return of status quo ante post-crisis. But this approach will be inadequate in a world of complex economic and social risks, when there is no return to business-as-usual practices,” said Bernice Lee, the report’s lead author.

“Industries – especially high-value manufacturing – may need to re-consider their just-in-time business model in an interdependent world,” she added.

Climate change and water scarcity will only add to risks, putting even more pressure on infrastructure and resources.

Experts have been warning governments over the past few years that they are not properly prepared to deal with national crises.

The UK government came under fire in 2007 for its lack of preparation and response to severe floods, which cost the economy 3.2 billion pounds.

The think-tank recommended various ways to improve responses from governments and businesses to extreme events.

It particularly highlighted social media networks as a useful “one-stop shop” for information in the event of a crisis. In the London riots last year, social networks such as Twitter proved invaluable for many people to track the rioters’ movements across the UK capital and take precautions.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45899109

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Record disaster insurance costs in 2011

January 5th, 2012

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The devastating earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand made 2011 the costliest year yet for the insurance industry in terms of natural disaster losses, a leading reinsurance company said Wednesday.

Munich Re AG said in an annual report that insured losses last year totaled $105 billion — exceeding the previous record of $101 billion set in 2005, when losses were swollen by claims from Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans.

The company said the total economic cost last year from natural disasters — including uninsured losses — totaled about $380 billion. That sum was far above the 2005 record of $220 billion.

Japan’s earthquake and tsunami in March caused overall losses of $210 billion and insured losses of between $35 billion and $40 billion, Munich Re said. The accounting didn’t include the consequences of the subsequent meltdowns at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant, which resulted in the evacuation of a wide swath of land.

The second most costly disaster for insurers, at $13 billion, was the February quake that devastated much of the New Zealand city of Christchurch.

Munich Re said last year’s sequence of natural disasters was very rare, and that 2011 brought catastrophes expected only once every 1,000 years or more. Normally, weather-related events are the chief cause of losses.

“Even if it seems hard to believe given recent events, the probability of earthquakes has not increased,” said Peter Hoeppe, the head of Munich Re’s risk research unit.

Severe storms and tornadoes in the United States in late April cost insurers $7.3 billion and led to overall damage worth $15 billion. Hurricane Irene, which hit the Caribbean and United States in late August, caused insured losses of $7 billion and total losses of $15 billion.

Still, Munich Re said losses from North Atlantic hurricanes were “moderate” in 2011, with only three major named storms making landfall in the United States.

Reinsurers offer backup policies to insurance companies. Reinsurance helps spread risk so that the system can handle large losses from natural disasters.

Sometimes insurance premiums actually rise after large disasters because insurers’ capacity to offer policies is reduced. But in 2011 many observers say reinsurers’ pricing strength didn’t increase because the companies still had plenty of excess capital. With Reuters

Originally published: January 4, 2012 5:56 PM
Updated: January 4, 2012 8:56 PM
By GEIR MOULSON. The Associated Press

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Definition of Disaster

December 21st, 2011

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dis·as·ter

/dɪˈzæstər, -ˈzɑstər/ Show Spelled[dih-zas-ter, -zah-ster] Show IPA

noun

1.

a calamitous event, especially one occurring suddenly and causing great loss of life, damage, or hardship, as a flood, airplane crash, or business failure.

Types of Disasters:

Natural
Pandemic
Man-made
War/Terrorism/Crime
Personal

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Wind advisory for Long Island as some lose power

December 8th, 2011

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A wind advisory is in effect early Thursday for Long Island, as sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph could gust up to 55 mph, forecasters said.

The National Weather Service said the advisory is in effect until 7 a.m.

The high winds could bring down small tree limbs, causing power outages, the weather service said. As of 5 a.m. Thursday, nearly 7,000 Long Island Power Authoriy customers were without power. Many of those affected reside in Brookhaven (1,969) and Huntington (1,308), according to LIPA’s website.

The wind and rain also has affected this morning’s commute on the Long Island Rail Road. Customers on the Ronkonkoma branch should anticipate 10 to 15 minute delays in both directions between Hicksville and Ronkonkoma due to weather-related crossing gate damage, the MTA said.

Thursday will be sunny and cooler, with a high near 48.

Originally published: December 7, 2011 10:00 AM
Updated: December 8, 2011 5:10 AM
By DAVID J. LOPEZ david.lopez@newsday.com

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Huge asteroid passes close to earth

November 8th, 2011

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A massive asteroid will make a rare fly-by Tuesday, and although it poses no danger of crashing to Earth, US scientists said this week they are eager for a closer look.

“This is not a potentially hazardous asteroid, just a good opportunity to study one,” said National Science Foundation astronomer Thomas Statler.

The circular asteroid, named 2005 YU55, is about 1,300 feet (400 meters) wide, making it the size of an aircraft carrier.

It will come closer than the Moon, zipping by at a distance of 202,000 miles (325,000 kilometers), the US space agency said.

The time of the nearest flyby is expected to be at 2328 GMT (6:28 Eastern time in the US).

The encounter will be the closest by an asteroid of that size in more than 30 years, and a similar event will not happen again until 2028.

However, those who want to see will need a telescope.

The asteroid is “going to be pretty faint when it flies by,” said Scott Fisher, program director of the National Science Foundation’s Division of Astronomical Sciences.

“It will not be visible to the naked eye. You will need a telescope that has a mirror at least six inches in size to see it. To make it even more difficult to observe, it will be moving very quickly across the sky as it passes.”

Several radar telescopes are set up in North America to catch glimpses of the space rock, Fisher added.

“The best time (and place) to observe it would be in the early evening on November 8th from the east coast of the US.”

Astronomers who have studied the object, part of the C-class of asteroids, say it is very dark, like the color of charcoal, and quite porous.

It was first discovered in 2005 by Robert McMillan of the Spacewatch Project, a solar-system-scanning group of scientists near Tucson, Arizona.

While 2005 YU55 will stay a safe distance away, it is part of a crew of 1,262 big asteroids circling the Sun and measuring more than 500 feet (150 meters) across that NASA classifies as “potentially hazardous.”

“We want to study these asteroids so if one does look like it may hit us someday, we’ll know what to do about it,” Statler said.

The asteroid’s closest pass is set to take place in 2094, at a distance of 167,000 miles (269,000 kilometers), according to forecasts.

“The observations will give us a piece of the puzzle, one we don’t get many chances to see,” said Don Yeomans of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

“At one time, we thought these were the asteroids that delivered carbon and other elements to the early Earth, so they are pretty important.”

NASA said the last time a space rock this big approached Earth was in 1976, “although astronomers did not know about the fly-by at the time.”

http://news.yahoo.com/rare-near-earth-asteroid-fly-set-tuesday-173728909.html

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Obama Has Declared Record-Breaking 89 Disasters So Far in 2011

October 28th, 2011

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From Hurricane Irene , which soaked the entire East Coast in August, to the Midwest tornadoes , which wrought havoc from Wisconsin to Texas, 2011 has seen more billion-dollar natural disasters than any year on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center.

And as America’s hurricanes, floods, tornadoes and wildfires set records this year, so too has President Obama in his response to them.

During the first 10 months of this year President Obama declared 89 major disasters, more than the record 81 declarations that he made in all of 2010.

And Obama has declared more disasters — 229 — in the first three years of his presidency than almost any other president signed in their full four-year terms. Only President George W. Bush declared more, having signed 238 disaster declarations in his second term, from 2005 to 2009.

But while the sheer number of bad weather events played a big role in the uptick in presidential disaster declarations, Obama’s record-setting year may have something to do with politics as well.

“There’s no question about it that the increase in the number of disaster declarations is outstripping what we would expect to see, given what we observe in terms of weather,” said Robert Hartwig, the president and economist at the Insurance Information Institute. “There’s a lot of political pressure on the president and Congress to show they are responsive to these sorts of disasters that occur.”

While the president aimed to authorize swift and sweeping aid to disaster victims, Congress was entrenched in partisan battles over how to foot the bill . When Republicans demanded that additional appropriations for a cash-strapped FEMA be offset by spending cuts, the government was almost shut down over disaster relief funding.

Such budget showdowns have become commonplace in Congress, but a similarly slow response to natural disasters by the president has been met with far more pointed and politically damaging criticism. Former President Bush learned that the hard way after what was seen as a botched initial response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

“Ever since that time we’ve seen FEMA try to act more responsively and we’ve seen presidents more engaged in the issues going on with respect to disasters,” Hartwig said.

Mark Merritt, who served as deputy chief of staff at FEMA during the Clinton Administration, said Obama’s record-breaking number of declarations has less to do with politics and more to do with demographics.

People are moving to high-risk areas like beaches and flood plains, more bad weather events are occurring and the country’s infrastructure is “crumbling,” he said.

“It’s not being used any more as a political tool today than it has over the past 18 years,” said Merritt, who is now the president of the crisis management consulting firm Witt Associates. “Everybody can say there’s a little bit of politics involved, and I won’t deny that, but I don’t think it’s a political tool that politicians use to win reelections.”

Politics aside, Obama’s higher-than-ever number of disaster declarations may also have a lot to do with the broad scale of this year’s disasters, which led to more declarations of catastrophes because each state affected by the disaster gets its own declaration.

For example, Hurricane Andrew, which hit Florida in 1992, cost upwards of $40 billion in damage, but resulted in only one disaster declaration because the damage was almost entirely confined to one state.

Hurricane Irene, on the other hand, pummeled much of the East Coast this summer, causing the president to make 9 disaster declarations, one for each state affected. Although there were 8 more declarations for Irene than for Andrew, the Irene caused about $7 billion in damage, a fraction of the damage caused by Andrew (up to $42 billion in today’s dollars).

Each presidential disaster declaration makes the federal government — specifically FEMA — responsible for at least 75 percent of the recovery costs, relieving cash-strapped state and local governments of the billions in damages caused by this year’s hurricanes, floods and tornadoes.

Richard Salkowe, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of South Florida who studies federal disaster declarations and denials, argued that the trend toward more declarations stems from local governments becoming more aware of the availability of federal funds.

“The local governments and state governments have become more aware of the process and more efficient in using it,” Salkowe said. “I’d say yeah, there are more states that have overwhelming needs, and that may have lead to the Obama administration declaring more disaster areas.”

http://news.yahoo.com/obama-declared-record-breaking-89-disasters-far-2011-100001060.html

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Weekend Weather Report

October 28th, 2011

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Today… Sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

Tonight… Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow after midnight. Lows in the upper 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Saturday… Rain. Windy with highs in the mid 40s. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

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Series of earthquakes strike Big Island of Hawaii

October 20th, 2011

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A 4.5-magnitude earthquake struck the north part of the Big Island on Wednesday, and the shaking was followed by a series of smaller temblors.

The first quake struck 13 miles southeast of Waimea at about 2 p.m., the U.S. Geological Survey said. It was centered at a depth of 11.7 miles. About two dozen smaller quakes ranging in magnitude from 1.7 to 3.6 followed within two hours.

No tsunami alert was issued and there were no immediate reports of damage. Residents across the island reported feeling light to moderate shaking.

“When you feel a four-and-a-half at close range, it feels like a truck crashed into a building,” said Weston Thelen, seismic network manager for Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.

The smaller quakes were normal sizes for an aftershock sequence, he said, adding that they can continue at low levels for several days.

The vast island — spread across more than 4,000-square miles — was formed by several volcanoes. The latest earthquakes caused no detectable changes in the continuing eruption of Kilauea volcano, according to the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.

Over the past 25 years, the north flank of Mauna Kea has experienced 10 earthquakes greater than magnitude 4.0, including Wednesday’s event, at depths of 6 to 25 miles. Deep earthquakes in the region are most likely caused by structural adjustments within the Earth’s crust due to the heavy load of Mauna Kea, the observatory said.

Adjustments beneath Mauna Kea during past similar events, such as in March 2010, have produced a flurry of earthquakes, with many small aftershocks occurring for days after the main quake.

A 6.7-magnitude earthquake that struck the Big Island on Oct. 15, 2006, damaged buildings and roads, but there were no serious injuries or deaths.

http://news.yahoo.com/series-earthquakes-strike-big-island-hawaii-005527961.html

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